Economics & Global Affairs

129 Items

Aerial view of Shanghai World Financial Center and Jin Mao Tower

Mgmoscatello/Wikimedia Commons

Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

Stop Obsessing About China

| Sep. 21, 2018

The United States is a deeply polarized nation, yet one view increasingly spans the partisan divide: the country is at imminent risk of being overtaken by China. Unless Washington does much more to counter the rise of its biggest rival, many argue, it may soon lose its status as the world’s leading power. According to this emerging consensus, decades of U.S. investment and diplomatic concessions have helped create a geopolitical monster. China now boasts the world’s largest economy and military, and it is using its growing might to set its own rules in East Asia, hollow out the U.S. economy, and undermine democracy around the globe. In response, many Democrats and Republicans agree, the United States must ramp up its military presence in Asia, slap tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods, and challenge China’s influence worldwide.

But this emerging consensus is wrong and the policy response misguided. China is not about to overtake the United States economically or militarily—quite to the contrary. By the most important measures of national wealth and power, China is struggling to keep up and will probably fall further behind in the coming decades. The United States is and will remain the world’s sole superpower for the foreseeable future, provided that it avoids overextending itself abroad or underinvesting at home.

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump pose for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jingping and his wife, Mrs. Peng Liyuan, Thursday, April 6, 2017, at the entrance of Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, FL (Official White Photo by D. Myles Cullen)

Official White Photo by D. Myles Cullen

Magazine Article - The Atlantic

What Xi Jinping Wants

| May 31, 2017

"Within a month of becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi specified deadlines for meeting each of his 'Two Centennial Goals.' First, China will build a 'moderately prosperous society' by doubling its 2010 per capita GDP to $10,000 by 2021, when it celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. Second, it will become a 'fully developed, rich, and powerful' nation by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049. If China reaches the first goal— which it is on course to do—the IMF estimates that its economy will be 40 percent larger than that of the U.S. (measured in terms of purchasing power parity). If China meets the second target by 2049, its economy will be triple America's."

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with their wives, first lady Melania Trump and Chinese first lady Peng Liyuan are seated during a dinner at Mar-a-Lago, Thursday, April 6, 2017, in Palm Beach, Fla. Ivanka Trump, the daughter and assistant to President Donald Trump, and White House senior adviser Jared Kushner are seated at left. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

The most important economic challenge that China poses

| Apr. 09, 2017

Focusing on China’s trade deficit with the United States is largely misguided. Yes, China subsidizes various exports to the rest of the world in a number of ways. But if the United States succeeds in stopping the subsidies or blocking the subsidized products, the result will be that companies will shift production to Vietnam and other low-wage countries—not create good jobs in the United States.

A currency trader calculates Malaysian ringgit notes at a currency exchange store in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2015. (AP Photo/Joshua Paul)

(AP Photo/Joshua Paul)

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Addicted to Dollars

| Mar. 02, 2017

Since the end of World War II, the United States’ share in world GDP has fallen from nearly 30% to about 18%. Other advanced economies have also experienced sustained declines in their respective slices of the global pie. But you wouldn’t know it from looking at the international monetary system.

In this Saturday, Jan. 28, 2017 file photo, President Donald Trump holds up a signed Presidential Memorandum in the Oval Office in Washington. Just two days after banning travelers from seven Muslim-majority nations, U.S. President Donald Trump invited the Saudi monarch, whose kingdom includes Islam’s holiest sites, to fly to Washington. It points to the delicate balancing act Trump faces as he tries to deliver on campaign promises to exterminate “radical Islamic terrorism” without endangering political and

AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File

Analysis & Opinions - The New Republic

Trump’s Foreign Policy Chaos

| Jan. 23, 2017

There is more to today’s prevailing gloom than concern about routine acts of terror. There is also a sense of strategic disorientation: After nearly three quarters of a century, the foundations of the liberal world order are giving way. In Europe, tepid growth, demographic decline, Russian revanchism and resurgent populism are testing the durability of Western cohesion.