Economics & Global Affairs

168 Items

Aerial view of Shanghai World Financial Center and Jin Mao Tower

Mgmoscatello/Wikimedia Commons

Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

Stop Obsessing About China

| Sep. 21, 2018

The United States is a deeply polarized nation, yet one view increasingly spans the partisan divide: the country is at imminent risk of being overtaken by China. Unless Washington does much more to counter the rise of its biggest rival, many argue, it may soon lose its status as the world’s leading power. According to this emerging consensus, decades of U.S. investment and diplomatic concessions have helped create a geopolitical monster. China now boasts the world’s largest economy and military, and it is using its growing might to set its own rules in East Asia, hollow out the U.S. economy, and undermine democracy around the globe. In response, many Democrats and Republicans agree, the United States must ramp up its military presence in Asia, slap tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods, and challenge China’s influence worldwide.

But this emerging consensus is wrong and the policy response misguided. China is not about to overtake the United States economically or militarily—quite to the contrary. By the most important measures of national wealth and power, China is struggling to keep up and will probably fall further behind in the coming decades. The United States is and will remain the world’s sole superpower for the foreseeable future, provided that it avoids overextending itself abroad or underinvesting at home.

 People walk past by an election poster of Turkey's president and ruling Justice and Development Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and Muharrem Ince, presidential candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party, in Istanbul, Tuesday, June 19, 2018.

AP Photo/Emrah Gurel

Analysis & Opinions - Brookings Institution

Unfair play: Central government spending under Turkey’s AK Party

| June 20, 2018

On June 24, Turkey will go to early presidential and parliamentary polls. The snap elections come amidst significant macroeconomic turmoil. As fears persist over the strength of Turkey’s economy, what can be said about how the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has managed public resources since its arrival into power in 2002? Do patterns of government spending reflect development or economic needs or do political priorities largely dictate how budgets are allocated?

A day after the elections, people walk past a billboard with the image of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Istanbul, Monday, June 25, 2018.

AP Photo/Emrah Gurel

Analysis & Opinions - Economic Research Forum

Local winners and losers in Erdoğan’s Turkey

| June 19, 2018

Throughout the 2000s, Turkey was portrayed as a model of social and economic success for other countries in the MENA region. Ahead of the country’s early presidential and parliamentary polls, this column reports research evidence on how the ruling Justice and Development Party has managed public resources and fostered local economic development since it took power in 2002. The government has played a substantial role in influencing local economic performance on a discretionary basis.

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump pose for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jingping and his wife, Mrs. Peng Liyuan, Thursday, April 6, 2017, at the entrance of Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, FL (Official White Photo by D. Myles Cullen)

Official White Photo by D. Myles Cullen

Magazine Article - The Atlantic

What Xi Jinping Wants

| May 31, 2017

"Within a month of becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi specified deadlines for meeting each of his 'Two Centennial Goals.' First, China will build a 'moderately prosperous society' by doubling its 2010 per capita GDP to $10,000 by 2021, when it celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. Second, it will become a 'fully developed, rich, and powerful' nation by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049. If China reaches the first goal— which it is on course to do—the IMF estimates that its economy will be 40 percent larger than that of the U.S. (measured in terms of purchasing power parity). If China meets the second target by 2049, its economy will be triple America's."

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with their wives, first lady Melania Trump and Chinese first lady Peng Liyuan are seated during a dinner at Mar-a-Lago, Thursday, April 6, 2017, in Palm Beach, Fla. Ivanka Trump, the daughter and assistant to President Donald Trump, and White House senior adviser Jared Kushner are seated at left. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

The most important economic challenge that China poses

| Apr. 09, 2017

Focusing on China’s trade deficit with the United States is largely misguided. Yes, China subsidizes various exports to the rest of the world in a number of ways. But if the United States succeeds in stopping the subsidies or blocking the subsidized products, the result will be that companies will shift production to Vietnam and other low-wage countries—not create good jobs in the United States.