Economics & Global Affairs

139 Items

The oil tanker Stena Impero in an Iranian port

(Tasnim News Agency/via AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Oil Probably Won’t Cause a War with Iran, but It Certainly Adds Fuel to the Blaze

    Author:
  • Jeff D. Colgan
| July 20, 2019

The relationship between oil and war is complicated—and much of the time, oil disputes are resolved peacefully. The more dangerous disputes are those where tensions over oil exacerbate other factors on the road to war.

Panorama of Pyongyang, North Korea.

Wikimedia CC/Sven Unbehauen

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Deterrence in Cyberspace

| June 03, 2019

Understanding deterrence in cyberspace is often difficult, because  minds remain captured by an image of deterrence shaped by the Cold War: a threat of massive retaliation to a nuclear attack by nuclear means. A better analogy is crime: governments can only imperfectly prevent it.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He about trade relations between their two countries, February 22, 2019.

Susan Walsh (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Even a Deal on Trade Won’t Paper Over the Widening Gap Between Washington and Beijing

| Apr. 24, 2019

The uncomfortable truth is that the United States and China countries face a deepeningdivergence of values and interests. The economic and military gap between them is narrowing, and both recognize that their mastery of high technologies of the future (of which artificial intelligence is but one) will ultimately determine their future claims to dominant superpower status. Given these realities, it is difficult to imagine a new bilateral relationship that will be based on policy principles substantive enough to prevent the two countries from gradually sliding in the direction of crisis, conflict or even war.

Grand Bazaar, Tehran, Iran

Wikicommons

Analysis & Opinions - The Brookings Institution

Iran’s Economy 40 Years after the Islamic Revolution

| Mar. 14, 2019

Unlike the socialist revolutions of the last century, the Islamic Revolution of Iran did not identify itself with the working class or the peasantry, and did not bring a well-defined economic strategy to reorganize the economy. Apart from eliminating the interest rate from the banking system, which was achieved in name only, the revolution put forward few specific economic policies that could be called an Islamic economic development strategy. To be sure, its populist and pro-poor rhetoric was quite distinct from the Pahlavi regime it replaced, but its actual policies could be found in the toolboxes of most developing countries and international organizations.

Russia's Energy Foray into Asia: Implications for U.S. Interests

kees torn/Flickr

Paper - National Bureau of Asian Research

Russia's Energy Foray into Asia: Implications for U.S. Interests

This essay examines Russia’s growing role in Asia’s energy markets, assesses the implications for the U.S., and examines the claim that closer Sino-Russian energy ties are adding new incentives for a broader strategic alignment.

From left to right: Ambassador Nicholas Burns, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Ambassador Susan Thornton

Harvard Kennedy School

Analysis & Opinions - Harvard Crimson

Ban Ki-moon Discusses North Korean Denuclearization and American Leadership

| Oct. 22, 2018

Former United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former top U.S. diplomat Susan A. Thornton discussed America’s role in the political future of the Korean peninsula before a packed audience at an Institute of Politics event Monday.

The event — entitled “Negotiating for Peace and Security on the Korean Peninsula” — was moderated by Harvard Kennedy School Professor R. Nicholas Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO.

A person types on a laptop keyboard in North Andover, Mass, June 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

AP Photo/Elise Amendola

Paper - Cyber Security Project, Belfer Center

(Why) Is There a Public/Private Pay Gap?

| August 2018

The government is facing a severe shortage of skilled workers, especially in information technology and cyber security jobs. The conventional wisdom in branches of policy and public administration is that the shortage is driven by low salaries that are not competitive for attracting top talent. Using longitudinal data on high skilled workers between 1993 and 2013, this paper shows that, if anything, government employees earn more than their private sector counterparts. Although government workers tend to earn less in the raw data, these differences are driven by the correlation between unobserved ability and selection into private sector jobs. These results are robust to additional data from the Census Bureau between 2005 and 2016. Instead, this paper shows that a more plausible culprit behind the worker shortage in government is a lack of development opportunities and poor management.

LNG Carrier

Wikimedia Commons

Analysis & Opinions - Bloomberg Opinion

Chinese Tariffs on U.S. Energy Would Signal a New Attitude

| July 10, 2018

In placing retaliatory tariffs on certain goods and products, America’s trade partners have signaled how well they understand American politics. By targeting products from areas supportive of President Donald Trump, they clearly hope to generate pressure to lift U.S. tariffs or even create broader political problems for the president. But China is sending much more interesting — and complex — messages with its indication that it may place retaliatory tariffs on U.S. energy exports.