Economics & Global Affairs

249 Items

The oil tanker Stena Impero in an Iranian port

(Tasnim News Agency/via AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Oil Probably Won’t Cause a War with Iran, but It Certainly Adds Fuel to the Blaze

    Author:
  • Jeff D. Colgan
| July 20, 2019

The relationship between oil and war is complicated—and much of the time, oil disputes are resolved peacefully. The more dangerous disputes are those where tensions over oil exacerbate other factors on the road to war.

Chinese President Xi Jinping smiles at the audience after concluding his speech at the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,  January 17, 2017.

Michel Euler (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Wall Street Journal

A Better Way to Deal With Beijing

| May 14, 2019

China isn’t a monolith, former World Bank president Robert B. Zoellick writes, and in order to make headway with China, the United States should also pressure the country’s leadership with non-economic means. A deal that opens up trade would be useful, but the U.S. needs a multifront strategy and continuing engagement with China, not a single transaction. America should coordinate with partners—including reformers in China—to change China’s behavior.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks on the prospect of continued negotiations with North Korea at the International Arctic Forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, April 9, 2019.

Dmitri Lovetsky (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Policing Terror Finance in an Era of Great Competition

| May 07, 2019

America’s sanctions strategy is increasingly burdened by the involvement of systemically important financial institutions and sovereign investors in global financial statecraft. In the post-9/11 world, Washington’s strategy was highly effective in pursuing non-state actors like al-Qaeda or ISIS, as well as small, rogue nations like Iran. Yet in addressing larger sovereigns like the Kremlin, US strategy has struggled to maintain the same effectiveness given the cross-border financial connections linking these entities to Western markets. As an era of great power competition among Washington, Moscow, and Beijing sets in, these foes will crowd out smaller, non-state actors, thus demanding an adequate response from the Treasury.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures warmly to the local residents of Simferopol, Crimea, Monday, March 18, 2019.

Yuri Kadobnov (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - Russia Matters

Key to Putin’s Passport Offers to Ukrainians? Russia’s Shrinking Labor Force

| Apr. 30, 2019

While Putin’s hopes of integrating Ukraine into the Eurasian Economic Union were dashed by the 2014 revolution, the Russian leadership has refused to yield in its battle with the EU over Ukraine’s shrinking labor force, Simon Saradzhyan writes. 

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He about trade relations between their two countries, February 22, 2019.

Susan Walsh (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Even a Deal on Trade Won’t Paper Over the Widening Gap Between Washington and Beijing

| Apr. 24, 2019

The uncomfortable truth is that the United States and China countries face a deepeningdivergence of values and interests. The economic and military gap between them is narrowing, and both recognize that their mastery of high technologies of the future (of which artificial intelligence is but one) will ultimately determine their future claims to dominant superpower status. Given these realities, it is difficult to imagine a new bilateral relationship that will be based on policy principles substantive enough to prevent the two countries from gradually sliding in the direction of crisis, conflict or even war.

An investor monitors stock prices in Beijing after U.S. President Donald Trump re-imposes sanctions on Iran, May 19, 2018.

Ng Han Guan (AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Diplomat

To Manage Great Power Competition, America Needs a New Economic Patriot Act

| Apr. 17, 2019

Shifts in the global economy have altered Washington’s sanctions calculus. In today’s era of great power competition, priority threats are no longer rogue states with little economic clout but nations with systemically important financial institutions and economic linkages. Russia and China top the list.

America’s sanctions strategy, however, hasn’t evolved to meet this challenge. Section 311 of the Patriot Act remains a powerful tool, but its collateral costs are too high to confront banks that are too big to fail. It’s time for a new Economic Patriot Act that can provide the scalpel-like instruments Washington needs to thwart our adversaries with speed and precision.

The Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei converses with a group of Revolutionary Guards and their families, Tehran, Iran, April 9, 2019.

AP

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Trump's Iran Sanctions Could Backfire

| Apr. 09, 2019

What does President Trump hope to accomplish with his policies towards Iran? And will he get what he wants by imposing ever-greater pressure on its regime? At this point, David Ignatius argues, it doesn't necessarily matter. Whether or not the sanctions against Iran are successful, the President's excessive focus on Iran may cost America its hard-won success elsewhere.

Grand Bazaar, Tehran, Iran

Wikicommons

Analysis & Opinions - The Brookings Institution

Iran’s Economy 40 Years after the Islamic Revolution

| Mar. 14, 2019

Unlike the socialist revolutions of the last century, the Islamic Revolution of Iran did not identify itself with the working class or the peasantry, and did not bring a well-defined economic strategy to reorganize the economy. Apart from eliminating the interest rate from the banking system, which was achieved in name only, the revolution put forward few specific economic policies that could be called an Islamic economic development strategy. To be sure, its populist and pro-poor rhetoric was quite distinct from the Pahlavi regime it replaced, but its actual policies could be found in the toolboxes of most developing countries and international organizations.

U.S. President Donald Trump Speaks During a Press Conference in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 28, 2019.

Associated Press

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Trump’s Comments on Otto Warmbier are a Reminder He Doesn’t Prioritize Human Rights

| Feb. 28, 2019

The Trump administration has never shown much interest in human rights. Last year, it pulled the United States out of the U.N. Human Rights Council. In 2017, within months of President Trump’s inauguration, then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said diplomats should not let human rights values become “obstacles” to achieving national goals. Trump has spoken favorably about some of the world’s most vicious dictators.