Economics & Global Affairs

1254 Items

 In this June 10, 2019, file photo, a man walks past a money exchange shop decorated with different banknotes at Central, a business district of Hong Kong.

AP Photo/Kin Cheung, File

Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The Financial Implications of Deploying Sanctions in Hong Kong

| Aug. 19, 2019

If a symbolic denouncement is indeed the goal, Magnitsky sanctions are likely the right tool, as they would send a powerful message of solidarity with protesters to both the Hong Kong and mainland authorities. 

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

Let’s Forget about 2% Inflation

| July 29, 2019

The Fed has some reasons for cutting interest rates at its meeting July 31, or subsequently if the US economy weakens. (And there are some good arguments on the other side as well, if growth remains as strong as it has been over the last year.)  But I find less persuasive one argument for easing: a perceived imperative to get inflation up to 2.0% or higher.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke set a 2% target for the US inflation rate in January 2012.  Some other countries had already done the same.  Japan followed suit a year later. Indeed Shinzo Abe’s successful accession to prime minister in late 2012 was predicated on the promise that monetary policy would raise inflation (Japan having previously suffered from negative inflation).

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Analysis & Opinions - Globe and Mail

Central banks should forget about achieving 2 per cent inflation

| July 28, 2019

The United States Federal Reserve has some reasons to cut interest rates at its July 31 meeting, or subsequently if the U.S. economy weakens. (There is also a case for holding rates steady, if growth remains as strong as it has been over the past year.) But one argument for easing is less persuasive: a perceived imperative to get U.S. inflation up to or above 2 per cent.

President Donald Trump, left, poses for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

A Financial Statecraft Strategy for the United States to Address the Rise of China

| July 01, 2019

Washington should adjust its coercive economic strategy to reflect a broader use of tools beyond sanctions. Given the degree of political interference in China’s banking system via formal state ownership and the indirect influence of opaque party committees, penalties imposed against the country’s banks are unlikely to produce a meaningful change in behavior.

Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren on a campaign stop

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Be Very Skeptical About How Much Revenue Elizabeth Warren’s Wealth Tax Could Generate

| June 28, 2019

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has made her proposed 2 percent wealth tax on those worth more than $50 million a central part of her presidential campaign. Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, two economists at the University of California at Berkeley, who helped developed the proposal, estimated that it it would rake in $187 billion a year.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump

AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Analysis & Opinions - Nikkei Asian Review

Where Will It End? The US-China Trade War and the Threat to the Global Economy

| June 19, 2019

Making sense of the U.S.-China trade war is difficult in itself. Making sense of how it may provoke a wider economic "decoupling," and impact the long-term strategic relationship between Beijing and Washington, is more difficult again.