Economics & Global Affairs

2063 Items

 In this June 10, 2019, file photo, a man walks past a money exchange shop decorated with different banknotes at Central, a business district of Hong Kong.

AP Photo/Kin Cheung, File

Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The Financial Implications of Deploying Sanctions in Hong Kong

| Aug. 19, 2019

If a symbolic denouncement is indeed the goal, Magnitsky sanctions are likely the right tool, as they would send a powerful message of solidarity with protestors to both the Hong Kong and mainland authorities. 

Narvikk/Getty Images

Narvikk/Getty Images

Analysis & Opinions - Globe and Mail

The Currency Manipulation Game Is Afoot – but That’s Better Than a Trade War

| Aug. 13, 2019

The trade war between the United States and China is heating up again, with U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly announcing plans to impose a 10-per-cent tariff on the US$300-billion worth of imports from China that he had so far left untouched. The Chinese authorities then allowed their currency, the renminbi, to fall below the symbolic threshold of seven yuan for every U.S. dollar. The Trump administration promptly responded by naming China a “currency manipulator” – the first time the U.S. had done that to any country in 25 years. Pundits declared a currency war, and investors immediately sent global stock markets lower.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

RMB Reaches 7.0; US Names China a Manipulator

| Aug. 12, 2019

The US-China trade war heated up in the first week of August.  On August 1, Donald Trump abruptly announced plans to impose a 10 % tariff on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China that he had not already hit with earlier tariffs.   The Chinese authorities then allowed their currency, the renminbi (RMB), to fall in value below the highly visible line of 7.0 RMB/$.  The US Administration promptly reacted on August 5 by naming China a “currency manipulator” — the first time any country had been given that designation in 25 years.   Pundits declared a currency war, while investors responded by immediately sending stock markets down.

President Donald J. Trump and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the United Nations General Assembly

Official White House Photo by D. Myles Cullen

Analysis & Opinions - The Hill

What Boris means for US-UK relations

| 07/31/22019

The combination of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, both of whom came from privileged backgrounds and rode populist waves into office, has heightened expectations of renewed alignment between America and Britain. Their personal chemistry, shared antipathy toward the European Union and desire for a trade deal will improve bilateral ties in the near term. There will be a honeymoon period, including their first meeting next month at the G7 summit in France. Yet there will also be friction as Johnson seeks to balance domestic and foreign policy interests.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

Let’s Forget about 2% Inflation

| July 29, 2019

The Fed has some reasons for cutting interest rates at its meeting July 31, or subsequently if the US economy weakens. (And there are some good arguments on the other side as well, if growth remains as strong as it has been over the last year.)  But I find less persuasive one argument for easing: a perceived imperative to get inflation up to 2.0% or higher.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke set a 2% target for the US inflation rate in January 2012.  Some other countries had already done the same.  Japan followed suit a year later. Indeed Shinzo Abe’s successful accession to prime minister in late 2012 was predicated on the promise that monetary policy would raise inflation (Japan having previously suffered from negative inflation).

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Analysis & Opinions - Globe and Mail

Central banks should forget about achieving 2 per cent inflation

| July 28, 2019

The United States Federal Reserve has some reasons to cut interest rates at its July 31 meeting, or subsequently if the U.S. economy weakens. (There is also a case for holding rates steady, if growth remains as strong as it has been over the past year.) But one argument for easing is less persuasive: a perceived imperative to get U.S. inflation up to or above 2 per cent.

Boris Johnson at Global Britain: UK Foreign Policy in the Era of Brexit

Chatham House

Analysis & Opinions - Brookings Institution

Brexit endgame: Boris and the Brexiteers take control

| July 25, 2019

The man whose childhood dream was becoming “world king” and whose charismatic leadership energized the Brexit campaign has become Britain’s new prime minister. On July 24, Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party and assumed the country’s top job. Following a campaign premised on delivering Brexit “do or die” by Halloween and with only 99 days until the departure deadline, Johnson wasted no time appointing a pro-Leave cabinet. Given EU resistance to renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a divided British Parliament, odds are increasing for a no-deal Brexit or a general election.