12 Items

Chinese President Xi Jinping is displayed on a big screen in Beijing as Chinese battle tanks roll by during a Sept. 3, 2015 parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II.

(AP Photo)

Magazine Article - The Atlantic

The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?

| September 24, 2015

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

Report

Challenges to U.S. Global Leadership

In a Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE session titled "Challenges to US Global Leadership," Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, David Gergen, David Ignatius, and Meghan O’Sullivan discussed challenges as well as opportunities facing the United States. Burns moderated the session.

Challenges include the rise of China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship, the crises taking place around the world, and the reputation of the U.S. worldwide. An unexpected opportunity is the increase in available energy sources in the United States.

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Discussion Paper - Caspian Studies Program

U.S. Policy on Russian and Caspian Oil Exports: Addressing America's Oil Addiction

| June 30, 2002

On April 8, 2002 - the same day that Iraq instituted an oil export embargo and only weeks after the U.S. Senate rejected new fuel efficiency standards for automobiles - students in my "Central Issues of American Foreign Policy" course at the Kennedy School of Government were in the middle of presenting policy recommendations to address America's "addiction to oil.

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Press Release

Graham Allison: We Must Act As If He Has The Bomb

| November 18, 2001

The question is suddenly urgent: Could the inconceivable happen? President Bush has previously warned the world that Osama bin Laden is seeking to develop weapons of mass destruction. Now, bin Laden himself claims to have chemical and nuclear weapons -- and "the right to use them." We cannot know for certain whether he is bluffing, but Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge has confirmed that documents detailing how to make nuclear weapons have been found in an al Qaeda safe house in Kabul. And we can certainly expect that as the noose tightens aroundthe terrorist''s neck, he and his associates will become increasingly desperate.

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Press Release

Graham Allison and Paul Volcker: U.S. Needs A Post-IMF Russia Policy

| June 18, 2001

Much of the news coverage of Saturday's summit between Presidents Bush and Putin focused on traditional security concerns. But at least as important are the economic relations between the U.S. and Russia. It's time to get this important issue right -- and to end an era dominated by the International Monetary Fund.

Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed.

BCSIA Communications Officer

Book - Longman

Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed.

| January 1999

The single best volume analyzing the defining moment in the nuclear age, the original edition of Essence of Decision is a classic work that has influenced generations of students, scholars, and policy makers. The new edition of this best-selling text includes comprehensive synthesis of all new evidence — including recently declassified Kennedy tapes and Soviet files. Not only revised, but completely rewritten, the new edition provides deeper and clearer answers to an enduring question: how should citizens understand the actions of their governments?

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Book - MIT Press

The Greek Paradox: Promise vs. Performance

As a bridge between the East and West, a pole of stability in the Balkans, and a Mediterranean crossroads, Greece could play a significant role in the post-Cold War world. But Greece's performance in domestic and international policy falls short of this promise. The essays in The Greek Paradox look at some of the reasons for this gap and suggest possible political and economic reforms.

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Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Towards a New Democratic Commonwealth

Thanks to the collapse of European communism, it is possible to envisage a new community embracing most of the states of the Northern Hemisphere. Voters in most of the former Soviet bloc countries have affirmed their commitment to democracy in repeated elections. Because of these elections, especially those in Russia, it is possible to think realistically of creating a Commonwealth of Democracies from Vancouver to Vladivostok to Tokyo.

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Must We Wait for the Nuclear Morning After?

| April 30, 1995

What is the message of the Oklahoma City bombing for American national security? First, the oft-repeated assertion that with the end of the Cold War, the United States faces no direct or immediate threat to our security at home is dead wrong. As the most open society on a shrinking globe, America's democracy is also most vulnerable to terrorists' attacks. Such actions threaten not only our security but also our freedom.