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Journal Article - PRISM - National Defense University

Nuclear Terrorism: Did We Beat the Odds or Change Them?

| May 15, 2018

It has been more than 13 years since the publication of Nuclear Terrorism: the Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, which sounded the alarm about the clear and present danger of nuclear terrorism. The book made the case for two seemingly contradictory propositions: first, on the current path, nuclear terrorism is inevitable; second, nuclear terrorism is preventable by an agenda of actions that are feasible and affordable. Juxtaposition of these propositions presented a paradox that the book attempted to resolve.

US Secretary of State John Kerry (right) and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif meet in Paris to discuss the Iranian nuclear deal.

United States Department of State

Analysis & Opinions - The National Interest

Assessing an Iran Deal: 5 Big Lessons from History

| July 7, 2015

As the policy community prepares to assess an agreement between the U.S. and its P5+1 partners and Iran, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker asked me to review the history of analogous agreements for lessons that illuminate the current challenge. In response to his assignment, I reviewed the seven decades of the nuclear era, during which the U.S. negotiated arms-control treaties, including the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968; strategic arms limitation talks and agreements from SALT to New Start; the North Korean accord of 1994; the agreements that helped eliminate nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in the early 1990s; and the pact that eliminated the Libyan nuclear weapons program in 2003.

Among many lessons and clues from this instructive history, five stand out

This knob-like structure surrounded by churned-up earth and stone, according to the German source, is Hill 505, the right corner post of the Maginot Line in France shown May 19, 1940.

(AP Photo)

Analysis & Opinions - Politico

The Nuclear Maginot Line

| July 1, 2014

French Minister of War Andre Maginot became infamous among military strategists for his fixation on a single route of attack that led to a fatal neglect of alternatives. Seeking to block a German invasion along the primary East-West axis, Maginot constructed an impregnable line of fortifications in the 1930s. He succeeded in preventing the attack he most feared, but when German panzers outflanked that line and rolled through Belgium in 1940, their attack from the rear led to France’s surrender in just six weeks.

The Coming Clash Over Iran

AP Images

Analysis & Opinions - The National Interest

The Coming Clash Over Iran

| December 10, 2012

Graham Allison and Shai Feldman write that while the Obama administration and the Netanyahu government were largely on the same page during the Gaza crisis, "much greater turbulence in their relations can be expected by the middle of next year when the issues associated with Iran’s nuclear project will likely reach another crescendo."

Analysis & Opinions - International Herald Tribune

For Energy Security, Think Nuclear

| July 14, 2006

Who is the No. 1 producer of energy in the world today? Russia. Who is the No. 1 exporter of energy in the world today? Again, Russia. Who is the No. 1 consumer of energy in the world today? The United States. So it is no accident, as the Russians say, that President Vladimir Putin chose "energy security" as the banner for the G-8 in St. Petersburg this week.

Analysis & Opinions - Defense News

Small Steps Toward Nuclear Control

| September 19, 2005

In September 2000, the U.S. and Russian governments signed the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, obligating each to destroy 34 tons of plutonium. As the White House announcement said, this was "enough plutonium to make thousands of nuclear weapons"— 8,000, to be precise. How many of these potential nuclear bombs have been eliminated to date? Zero.