Energy

24 Items

Vice President Joe Biden talks with staff at the National Renewable Energy Lab's Process Development and Integration Laboratory, which brings together technical experts from NREL, the solar industry, & universities for collaborative research, 4 June 2012.

Dennis Schroeder

Journal Article - Risk Analysis

Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts' Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies

| 2016

Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. The authors provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts' estimates.

teaser image

Journal Article - Climatic Change

Expert Views — and Disagreements — About the Potential of Energy Technology R&D

| June 2016

In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. The authors conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.

Two RENFE class 730 "Dual-mode Patito" ("duckling") crossing the Viaducto Martin Gil near Zamora, Spain, October 5, 2016.

Creative Commons

Policy Brief - INOGOV

Governing the EU 2030 Renewables Target: What Role for Regional Governance?

| November 2015

This policy brief informs the debate on the potential of regional governance in the EU2030 framework by drawing on knowledge from the field of interna&onal climate policy, where different forms of polycentric governance have been discussed and researched more intensively.

Announcement - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program Seeks New Project Manager

December 24, 2014

The Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP) Programis seeking a new colleague to manage, coordinate, and conduct research for a major research project. The project examines a wide range of issues focusing on innovations, climate mitigation, and sustainable energy alternatives in China, the United States, and the European Union.

Discussion Paper - Energy Technology Innovation Policy Project, Belfer Center

Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-analysis

| October 2014

Characterizing the future performance of energy technologies can improve the development of energy policies that have net benefits under a broad set of future conditions. In particular, decisions about public investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) that promote technological change can benefit from (1) an explicit consideration of the uncertainty inherent in the innovation process and (2) a systematic evaluation of the tradeoffs in investment allocations across different technologies. To shed light on these questions, over the past five years several groups in the United States and Europe have conducted expert elicitations and modeled the resulting societal benefits. In this paper, the authors discuss the lessons learned from the design and implementation of these initiatives.

Solar panel installation in Zwickau (Saxony, Germany) in front of the Zwickau University of Applied Sciences, January 9, 2005.

Aka Photo CC

Journal Article - Research Policy

Compulsive Policy-making—The Evolution of the German Feed-in Tariff System for Solar Photovoltaic Power

| In Press

This article shows how complex interdependencies and the uncertain nature of technological change shape the process of targeted policy interventions in socio-technical systems. Toward this end, the authors analyzed the evolution of the German feed-in tariff (FIT) system for solar photovoltaic power, a highly effective and widely copied policy instrument targeted at fostering the diffusion and development of renewable energy technologies.

Geothermal borehole house in Iceland, 14 March 2008.

Lydur Skulason Photo

Analysis & Opinions - Power & Policy Blog

OPEC Embargo +40: What Have We Learned?

| October 18, 2013

"If countries have learned anything, it is that they can protect themselves and become more resilient if they adopt policies and programs that increase their energy self-sufficiency. It turns out that this can be done much more quickly than anyone thought, if they build on what they have."

Journal Article - Environmental Research Letters

The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design

| July-September 2013

Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030.

Nuclear Fuel Rod Assembly

NEAMS/DOE Photo

Journal Article - Environmental Science and Technology

Expert Judgments about RD&D and the Future of Nuclear Energy

| 2012

Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

Dong Energy's Nick Brodigan on an offshore wind turbine's base platform, Gunfleet Sands Wind Farm off the coast of Brightlingsea, Essex, Apr. 24, 2009. The Carbon Trust launched a global competition for new designs of offshore wind turbine foundations.

AP Photo

Journal Article - Research Policy

Missions-oriented RD&D Institutions in Energy Between 2000 and 2010: A Comparative Analysis of China, the United Kingdom, and the United States

| December 2012

By analyzing the institutions that have been created to stimulate energy technology innovation in the United States, the United Kingdom, and China—three countries with very different sizes, political systems and cultures, natural resources, and histories of involvement in the energy sector—this article highlights how variations in national objectives and industrial and political environments have translated into variations in policy.